Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.107114 13.007244 15.082347 17.509973 20.264941 23.286942 26.845161
2025-01-05 8.104693 10.676775 13.767455 17.722489 22.613455 28.425588 35.813119
2025-01-12 6.137559 8.960527 12.642721 17.721126 24.455412 32.982078 44.481701
2025-01-19 4.829317 7.725223 11.783892 17.751749 26.141216 37.330144 53.157351
2025-01-26 4.254649 7.349105 11.952121 19.081939 29.582562 44.169780 65.579251
2025-02-02 3.697403 6.864366 11.842934 19.929485 32.347785 50.233342 77.345227
2025-02-09 3.240064 6.435952 11.723832 20.692773 34.993664 56.261625 89.428496
2025-02-16 2.728808 5.806961 11.169561 20.664548 36.371829 60.467684 99.080960
2025-02-23 2.233964 5.102317 10.367819 20.099957 36.794750 63.192627 106.621905
2025-03-02 1.803165 4.426425 9.502628 19.293380 36.696706 65.034005 112.846207
2025-03-09 1.537153 4.028425 9.082306 19.203936 37.762426 68.756122 122.194266
2025-03-16 1.290916 3.617967 8.570334 18.869547 38.342632 71.682028 130.388263
2025-03-23 1.185897 3.518826 8.687790 19.779313 41.286809 78.863065 146.168652
2025-03-30 1.043589 3.298561 8.520232 20.111240 43.204392 84.430577 159.618851
2025-04-06 0.899600 3.038645 8.224167 20.142343 44.549580 89.078795 171.772142
2025-04-13 0.778091 2.807504 7.953752 20.187594 45.912076 93.826440 184.342354
2025-04-20 0.754216 2.850222 8.333972 21.675845 50.239799 104.193921 207.301508
2025-04-27 0.701810 2.794694 8.465422 22.622267 53.539144 112.843019 227.611125
2025-05-04 0.649390 2.725943 8.552444 23.473342 56.700235 121.398980 248.149540
2025-05-11 0.564998 2.528624 8.274583 23.442063 58.004538 126.500001 262.621283
2025-05-18 0.470406 2.265444 7.773320 22.812974 57.968498 129.001510 272.390176
2025-05-25 0.382253 1.993402 7.194495 21.913716 57.249801 130.098253 279.545809
2025-06-01 0.330727 1.845096 6.945771 21.813963 58.295538 134.746073 293.646372